FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller said it plainly last week — "There is no freight recession right now. We are clearly done with it." After nearly four years of rate compression, capacity surplus, and margin pressure, the market has turned. The question isn't whether things are changing. The question is whether your brokerage is ready for a market where carriers have the leverage again.
WHAT'S HAPPENING
The freight recession that began in April 2022 — one of the longest downturns in trucking history — is officially over. The signals are converging from every direction. Tender rejection rates are sitting above 13 percent, levels the market hasn't seen in years. A 10 percent rate increase is already in place with more expected throughout the year. LTL rates are experiencing their strongest upward movement since the Yellow Corporation exit in 2023. And carriers are turning down loads at a rate that tells you one thing clearly — they have options again.
For context on how significant the rejection rate movement is — during the depths of the freight recession rejection rates sat below 4 percent. Carriers took almost everything because they had to. At 13 percent they are declining one in eight loads. That number will keep climbing as capacity tightens further heading into peak season demand.
The drivers behind this shift are structural not seasonal. Regulatory enforcement is removing drivers from the road at a pace that is compressing available capacity in ways that won't reverse quickly. Immigration enforcement has created real uncertainty around driver supply — estimates suggest potential impacts of 600,000 to 800,000 drivers from various regulatory actions. Industrial demand is building. Retail inventory restocking cycles are accelerating. And four years of carrier exits have removed enough capacity that the trucks-to-loads ratio has fundamentally shifted.
FreightWaves Head of Freight Market Intelligence Zach Strickland noted that while April showed some seasonal softness, the underlying market remains far stronger than year-ago levels. The market isn't waiting for a catalyst. It is already moving.
"Broker liability and compliance crackdowns will be the biggest story of the summer and could completely change the way brokers operate." — Craig Fuller, FreightWaves CEO
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BROKERS
The freight recession was painful but it created one advantage for brokers — carrier options were abundant and rates were soft. That dynamic is reversing fast. In a tightening market the brokers with strong carrier relationships and reliable capacity commitments win. The brokers who relied on spot market availability and low rates to stay competitive are about to feel serious pressure.
There is a second issue that every broker needs to understand right now. Fuller specifically flagged broker liability and compliance crackdowns as the biggest story heading into summer — bigger than rates, bigger than capacity. Regulatory scrutiny on how brokers vet carriers, document their processes, and manage liability exposure is intensifying. This isn't a distant threat. The infrastructure for enforcement action against brokers is being built right now.
The combination of tightening capacity and increasing regulatory pressure creates a specific risk profile for brokers who haven't updated their carrier vetting processes. A carrier relationship that worked fine in a soft market may not hold up under scrutiny in a tight one — especially if that carrier has compliance gaps you never checked.
⚠ Summer Outlook Warning Capacity constraints tied to regulatory enforcement could impact 600,000 to 800,000 drivers. If even a fraction of that plays out heading into peak season demand — brokers without locked contract lanes and verified carrier networks will face a very difficult summer covering freight.
WHAT TO DO RIGHT NOW
Lock in contract lanes now — before peak season. Spot market rates are already climbing. The brokers locking in contract commitments today are protecting their margins for the next 6 months. Waiting until summer to have this conversation with shippers means paying peak rates with no coverage.
Identify your top 10 carriers and strengthen those relationships. In a tight market carriers choose which brokers get their capacity first. Are you paying on time? Are you easy to work with? Are you offering consistent freight? Now is the time to be the broker your best carriers call first — not last.
Audit your carrier vetting process before regulators do it for you. Fuller's warning about broker liability crackdowns this summer is not hypothetical. Review your carrier onboarding checklist, your insurance verification process, and your documentation practices. If you can't demonstrate due diligence on every carrier you've booked — that's a liability.
Review your fuel surcharge agreements. Diesel prices have been volatile tied to geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Make sure your shipper agreements have fuel surcharge mechanisms that actually protect your margins when diesel spikes — not just absorb the hit.
Diversify your capacity sources. If you've been heavily reliant on one load board or one carrier network — now is the time to expand. In a tight market concentration risk is real. Multiple capacity sources means you can cover freight when your primary carriers are full.
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